TOTVS "Q2 Preview: A more balanced view on AI risk-reward + First Full..."

研报英文原文证据摘录

TOTVS "Q2 Preview: A more balanced view on AI risk-reward + First Full..."

E 2.32 1.88 -19 2.15

compute costs. However, we flag an important execution risk: if the industry 12/28E 2.92 2.56 -13 2.63

transitions to consumption-based models ahead of vendors' ability to adapt, Leonardo Olmos, CFA

potentially compressing seat-based revs. For reference, SAP targets only ~30% of Analyst

revs to be consumption-based by 2030 (vs. ~10% today). While LYNN (see first use leonardo.olmos@ubs.com

cases) is a step in the right direction, improving disclosure on AI monetization will +55-11-9658 7533

be key to mitigate AI-related concerns, which remain relevant in the ST. Gustavo Farias

Associate Analyst

Old vs New Estimates gustavo.farias@ubs.com

We revised our 2026 estimates, reducing revenue by 2% and reducing EBITDA by 6% +55-11-2767 6154

vs previously, due to a higher than expected headwinds from Linx operations. We

incorporate the higher net debt following the debt issuance to acquire Linx,

partially offset by cash proceeds from the sale of Dimensa. Techfin contribution to

Net Income is also reduced driven by a more pressured credit environment. All in,

Adj. Net Income is down by 10% vs our previous model.

Valuation: PT of R$34.50 based on a ~17.5x 2027E P/E multiple

We apply a 17.5x 2027E P/E (vs 16.8x previously) to reach our PT, based on historical

discount to Global Software peers (~20% and unchanged).

Highlights (R$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 4,515 4,903 5,752 7,541 8,625 9,736 10,590 11,580

EBIT (UBS) 680 854 1,111 1,440 1,811 2,199 2,458 2,752

Net earnings (UBS) 737 667 813 963 1,120 1,525 1,868 2,224

EPS (UBS, diluted) (R$) 1.19 1.11 1.36 1.61 1.88 2.56 3.13 3.73

DPS (net) (R$) 0.46 0.44 0.60 0.79 0.99 1.09 1.40 1.72