U.S. Hardlines & Grocery Retail "How is Grocery Competition Trending? – ..."

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U.S. Hardlines & Grocery Retail "How is Grocery Competition Trending? – ..."

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U.S. Hardlines & Grocery Retail Equities

AmericasHow is Grocery Competition Trending? – A Deep

Dive into Pricing, Overlaps, & Other Factors Retailers, Broadline

Michael Lasser

Analyst

michael.lasser@ubs.com

Our data checks suggest YTD pricing trends in food retail have been steady, +1-212-713 2440

despite elevated volatility

Joshua Bluestine

Our read is that the pricing environment across food / consumables retail has been stable Analyst

and consistent as of late. This runs counter to the narrative that competition amongst joshua.bluestine@ubs.com

leading consumables retailers is likely to rise. However, this does not mean competition +1-212-713 1297

will not increase going forward. With consumer budgets facing pressure, a rotation Mark Carden

towards Food At Home vs. Food Away From Home, and additional fuel from tariff Analyst

refunds, there could be a shift amongst retailers towards making investments in price, mark.carden@ubs.com

especially as some realize the benefit of tariff refunds and others look to improve their +1-212-713 3218

overall standing. Yet, with rising input costs from an increasing cost of transportation, Dan Silverstein

higher fertilizer expense and increased manufacturer pricing, there are also several Analyst

offsets present that will mitigate or offset price investments. daniel.silverstein@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2459

For now, the data indicates that large action has not been taken in one way or another. Sachin Verma

Retailer prices have not moved sharply in either direction, despite the volatility. Notably, Associate Analyst