Besi (AO) | Hold | More ways to win, less room to miss

研报英文原文证据摘录

Besi (AO) | Hold | More ways to win, less room to miss

logic HB orders at a higher run-rate, repeat CPO orders (Nvidia/Broadcom/Marvell), and

Engine 1 pulling its weight alongside Engine 2 to make a tripling of sales over the next five years look achievable. Finally, with a

planned capacity of 420 HB systems per year (35/month), Besi is either building well ahead of the near-term demand curve, or

assuming a terminal HB market share that sits well above its historical 40%+level.

Target model

Besi raised its 2030 revenue target to EUR1.7-2.2bn (midpoint: EUR1.95bn, +~15%), split between Engine 1 (Traditional Advanced

Packaging) at EUR1.1bn and Engine 2 (Submicron Accuracy) at EUR0.6-1.1bn. The larger uplift comes from Submicron Accuracy, where

the midpoint increases by roughly 21%, signaling rising conviction in higher-precision applications such as hybrid bonding, CPO and

photonics. Operating margins also received an upgrade, with the floor lifted to 45% (from 40%), while the 55% ceiling, 64-68% gross

margin target and 40%+ market share ambition remained unchanged.

CPO was the biggest positive delta. Management effectively moved CPO from R&D/upside to a low-case assumption. Nvidia and

Marvell products are now commercially available, while TSMC’s COUPE platform is increasingly emerging as the leading CPO

architecture.

VisibleAlpha consensus already assumed execution at the very top of the new sales range, and both our and Street margin

estimates sit comfortably above the upgraded 45% EBIT margin floor. So the margin uplift is useful confirmation of mix and

operating leverage, but not a major earnings upgrade in itself.

Table 1:Target model change 2026 vs 2025

Metric 2025 Investor Day 2026 Investor Day

Total revenue EUR1.5-1.9bn EUR1.7-2.2bn