ADNOC L&S (1K) | Buy | Tankers roar, long-term story strengthened

研报英文原文证据摘录

ADNOC L&S (1K) | Buy | Tankers roar, long-term story strengthened

#EstimatesRevision #HighConviction

Release date: 19 June 2026

Company research

BuyADNOC L&S

United Arab Emirates | Energy equip. &

MCap: AED45.5bn services

Target Price: AED6.95 (6.80) Change in TP: 2.2 % Bloomberg: ADNOCLS UH Reuters: ADNOCLS.AD

Current Price: AED6.15 Change in Sales: 4.7% 26E/6.9% 27E Free float 22%

Up/downside: 13.0% Change in Adj EBIT: 11.3% 26E/-4.3% 27E Avg. daily volume (AEDm) 45.9

YTD abs performance 3.9% Market data: 18 June 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: 13.0% 26E/-4.5% 27E

52-week high/low (AED) 6.15/4.20

Tankers roar, long-term story strengthened Price performance

Why this report?

Q2 will likely mark the peak of the current tanker super-cycle, with record

LR2/LR1 rates driving strong QOQ earnings momentum, while normalisation

in H2 now looks like the right baseline after the Strait of Hormuz reopening.

More importantly, the long-term equity story has improved markedly after

the UAE's OPEC exit, which could unlock higher ADNOC volumes. Iran's

reintegration into the global economy could also add regional trade/logistics

optionality. We raise our EPS by c. 13% in 2026E but lower it by 4.5% in 2027E,

mainly due to higher D&A. TP nudged up from AED6.80 to AED6.95. We

reiterate our Buy rating, with the stock remaining a key MENA conviction.

Key findings

We have updated our model ahead of Q2 results, which should be exceptionally FY to 31/12 (USD) 12/25 12/26E 12/27E

strong on record tanker spot rates, especially LR2 and LR1, the core of the fleet. Sales 5,016 4,817 4,685

Our preliminary forecasts suggest Q2 revenue up 26% QOQ, EBITDA +26% and net EBITDA adj. 1,469 1,583 1,409

income +48%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus. EBIT adj. 944 1,070 889

Net profit adj. 830 985 856