Consumer Spend Collective: May retail sales: May-be we can keep spending

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Consumer Spend Collective: May retail sales: May-be we can keep spending

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Consumer Spend Collective

May retail sales: May-be we can keep

spending

We forecast strong May retail sales report 17 June 2026

Total card spending per HH, as measured by BAC aggregated credit and debit cards, was

Equityup 5.1% y/y in May. On a m/m SA basis, BAC card spending per HH increased by just

United States

0.1%, though retail spending ex-autos was up a solid 0.5%. Within retail, there were

large gains in gas (due to another leg up in prices), online retail (card not present) and

furniture. The share of discretionary categories in the consumer wallet in May 2026 was

lower than in May 2025 levels across all income cohorts. This is noteworthy because this

share has been trending up in recent years. Lower-income HHs are feeling the pinch of

the gas shock more: they've seen a larger increase in necessary spending. That said, US

Economics look for m/m increases of 0.8% and 0.7% in retail sales ex-autos and the

control group and forecast a strong May retail sales report. ThomasHead of Research(T.J.) ThorntonMarketing

BofAS

Low-income consumer uptick despite waning tax refunds +1thomas.thornton2@bofa.com646 855 2449

Clothing spending was +5.4% in May versus +3.8% in April. The spread between low- Economics

income and high-income continued contracting in May due to an uptick in spend from Aditya Bhave

US Economist

the lower-income consumer. Lorraine Hutchinson views the recent uptick in low-income BofAS

spending as transitory, with tax refund tailwinds fading in the next months. Teen Fundamental Equity Research

clothing spend accelerated to +0.9% in May vs -10.1% in April. Young adult clothing Lorraine Hutchinson, CFA

Research Analyst

decelerated to +4.7% versus +5% in April.