Unicredit: On the way to clinching €100 – new top pick

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Unicredit: On the way to clinching €100 – new top pick

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Unicredit

On the way to clinching €100 – new top

pick

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 100.00 EUR | Price: 74.57 EUR

A mispriced opportunity – €100 PO, top pick 16 June 2026

A penalty in football is a direct free kick taken from the 12-yard penalty mark with only Equity

the goalkeeper defending. This still comes with execution risk but it’s a major

opportunity to score a goal. That’s how we feel about UniCredit’s investment case.

Key ChangesUniCredit has the potential to make over €20bn in profits post CBK synergies and we

think the prospect is mispriced. Reiterate Buy and new top pick, PO up from €92 to €100 (EUR) Previous Current

(ADR to $57.76 from $53.99), c.35% upside potential. See valuation section for details. Price Obj. 92.00 100.00

Scenario 50% stakes: CBK board control Antonio Reale >>

In this note, we deviate from our standalone case and run scenarios in which UniCredit Research Analyst

could reach 50%, 75% and 100% stakes in CBK. Full consolidation would occur once MLI (UK) +44 20 7996 1763

UniCredit holds more than 50% of the voting rights at which point Commerzbank’s P&L antonio.reale@bofa.com

and balance sheet would be fully incorporated. This could happen at either >50% stake Rohan Datta, CFA >>

or potentially via ‘de-facto’ control which could arise at c.43% ownership (i.e. a majority ResearchMLI (UK) Analyst

at the AGM). In such a scenario, we estimate c.€1bn of incremental pre-tax profit, +44 20 7995 8102

equating to c.6–7% EPS accretion. rohan.datta@bofa.com

Scenario 75% stakes: domination agreement

In Germany, a domination agreement would allow integration of CBK into UniCredit

Stock Databefore 100% ownership. With 75% of AGM votes, UniCredit could potentially unlock the