SIRI - BUY - Updating Model; See Positive Momentum Continuing as the Financial Model Inflects, Capital Returns Increase and Spectrum Provides Optionality

研报英文原文证据摘录

SIRI - BUY - Updating Model; See Positive Momentum Continuing as the Financial Model Inflects, Capital Returns Increase and Spectrum Provides Optionality

June 16, 2026

Curry Baker curry.baker@guggenheimpartners.com SIRI - BUY - Updating Model; See Positive

804 253 8029 Momentum Continuing as the Financial Model

Michael Morris, CFA

michael.morris@guggenheimpartners.com Inflects, Capital Returns Increase and Spectrum

804 253 8025 Provides Optionality Charles Wilber

charles.wilber@guggenheimpartners.com

804 335 3977 Key Message: We are updating our model, and raising our 2Q26 and full-year estimates

Taylor Manley on continued Podcasting advertising momentum and subscription stabilization (mix of

taylor.manley@guggenheimpartners.com more modest sub losses and price increases). We see a path toward ongoing stabilization

804 253 1336 for SIRI overall into 2027 as the YouTube partnership ramps. Our view is that shares will

continue to find support in the near term due to: 1) stabilizing core financials, 2) FCF Grayson Glenn

grayson.glenn@guggenheimpartners.com will continue to grow (satellite CAPEX cycle winding down through 2028), 3) leverage in

804 253 8053 the target zone by year-end freeing up additional capital returns (we expect buybacks

—our model assumes $222mm this year, growing to $800mm in 2027), and 4) ongoing

optionality around spectrum monetization (we believe partnerships could begin to be

announced in the near future). We expect management to raise guidance coming out of

SIRI BUY 2Qsubs).earnings,Our modeland remainforecastsaboveSIRIbothFCF/shareguidance/consensusat ~$4.20 this(Revenue,year, implyingEBITDA,an attractiveFCF, and

Sirius XM Holdings Inc. 15% FCF yield.

Sector: Media & Live Entertainment