Latam Macro Notes: Peru – Another strong growth print

研报英文原文证据摘录

Latam Macro Notes: Peru – Another strong growth print

Deutsche Bank

Research

Emerging Markets Date

Latam Macro Notes 16 June 2026

Peru – Another strong growth print

Beatriz Garcia Nunes

Key points: LatAm Economist

• Economic activity increased by 0.6% m/m SA in April, reflecting the +1-212-250-9584

strong momentum in the construction sector and the lower March base.

Francisco Campos

• Unemployment surprised yet again on the downside in May, posting the Chief LatAm Economist

lowest level for the month since the 2000s. +1-212-250-9764

• We expect GDP to grow 3.1% in 2026, with risks tilted to the upside.

• With Fujimori likely poised to become Peru’s next president, the right-

leaning composition of the new bicameral system is expected to facilitate

governability and the advancement of her agenda, which prioritizes

private investment and the integration of AI into public services.

April GDP proxy (INEI) = 0.59% SA m/m and 3.73% NSA y/y (vs BBG

expectation of 3.6%)

May unemployment rate (Lima Metropolitan Area) = 4.5% (3-month moving

average = 5% vs BBG expectation of 5.4%)

INEI’s estimate of Peru’s GDP in April increased by 0.6% m/m SA, reflecting the

lower base given the disruption to activity stemming from the troubles in natural

gas distribution in March. Six out of the eight sectors grew in April, namely, fishing

(19% SA m/m), construction (4.2%), utilities (2.5%), manufacturing (1.5%), mining

(0.5%), and other services (0.2%). These expanding sectors prevailed over the

-3.5% and -0.4% SA m/m declines in agriculture and trade output, respectively

(Figure 1). The construction sector continues to outperform the economy,

capturing the various ongoing public and private infrastructure projects. On an

annual basis, the economy grew by 3.7% NSA y/y in April (Figure 4).