Antin: Growth pushed out

研报英文原文证据摘录

Antin: Growth pushed out

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Hold Antin 16 June 2026

Forecast Change

Europe

France

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 15 Jun 2026 (EUR) 9.14

ANTIN.PA ANTIN FP PAR ANTIN

Price Target (EUR) 11.50

Diversified Financials

52-week range (EUR) 12.82 - 9.14

Asset Managers

Growth pushed out

Valuation & Risks

Sharath Kumar

EPS inflection now likely only in 2028E Research Analyst

Antin remains well positioned within a structurally attractive infrastructure market, +44-20-754-79527

but near-term dynamics continue to deteriorate. Lack of exit activity (no realisations

Benjamin Goy

since 3Q24) and relatively slower (albeit recently improving) deployment pace in Research Analyst

flagship fund V (~58% since Aug-22) pushes the launch of Fund VI to mid-2027, +49-69-910-31946

materially delaying the next leg of fee growth. While Mid Cap II should provide some

support in 2026, overall fundraising activity is set to remain subdued, with Next Gen Key changes

II likely only contributing from 2027. As a result, we now expect FP AuM growth of TP 12.00 to 11.50 ↓ -4.2%

c.8% CAGR to 2028, but with a back-ended profile (-2% in 2026E, +8% in 2027E and Source: Deutsche Bank

+17% in 2028E). We forecast broadly flat management fees in 2026-2027E vs. 2025

and only a marginal pick-up in carried interest, which isn't enough to offset high-

single digit costs growth, resulting in an EBITDA decline in 2026-2027E. We see

EPS materially stepping up in 2028E (+56% vs. 2027, +12% EPS CAGR 2025-

2028E).

No near-term catalysts / EPS momentum; Hold at €11.50 TP

We cut our estimates materially (EPS -4% in 2026, -28% in 2027 and -16% in 2028).

We retain all valuation assumptions, other than moving the fee-related earnings

(FRE) reference year to 2027 (vs.