Tough Times (Again)

研报英文原文证据摘录

Tough Times (Again)

Australia | Healthcare Services

Monash EquityJuneResearch11, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGETough Times (Again)

MVF now expects FY26E underlying Group NPAT to range between A RATING BUY

$17-18m (from cA$20m), due to a market decline in the volume of IVF PRICE AUD0.68^

in Australia in 2HFY26E. We believe this is in part due to the somewhat PRICE TARGET | % TO PT AUD0.80 (AUD0.90) |

discretionary nature of IVF. We do not expect a sudden turnaround in IVF +18%

52W HIGH-LOW AUD0.90 - AUD0.58

volumes but highlight previous corporate interest in IVF if an acquirer is

FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 75.7% | 0.30

willing to take a longer-term view given favourable industry dynamics.

MARKET CAP AUD265.0M | $186.0M

Downgrade. MVF advises that it now expects FY26E Underlying NPAT to be in the range of TICKER MVF AU

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

A$17m to A$18m (vs. previous guidance at cA$20m, JEF now at A$17.5m). The key driver noted.

for the revised FY26E earnings outlook is lower than expected Australian ART market activity

in 2HFY26E. Based on Medicare data, across the Australian ART market, stimulated cycle

volumes are down 4.7% on a rolling three-month basis to the end of April compared to the FY (Jun) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

prior corresponding period. The impact of adverse market conditions has continued through 2026 2027 2026 2027

May and into June. We now expect Australian IVF market volume growth of -3.5% (from -1% REV -2% -2% -2% +2%

previously). Our market share forecast for MVF in FY26E remains at 20%. EPS -13% NA -4% -13%

We believe IVF is more discretionary than other healthcare services companies we cover. 2026 (AUD) 1HalfA 2Half FY

We believe this is partly due to the ongoing economic challenges in Australia.