Resilient Growth Path Intact; Re-Rating Ahead

研报英文原文证据摘录

Resilient Growth Path Intact; Re-Rating Ahead

muted operating PREV 4.70

leverage despite strong volumes, with management explicitly calling out both geographic mix and

project-heavy sales as margin headwinds. However, these effects should prove largely transitory:

as Nordic demand stabilizes and scaling benefits in newer markets come through, both volume Chart 1 - Progressing towards >10% operating

margin target

leverage and mix should turn supportive rather than dilutive. 16,000

10.0% 10.4% 10.7% 14,000

9.2% 8.9% 9.1% 9.4%

12,000 8.1% 8.5%

7.4%Execution focus shifting to the commercial layer. Strategically, Systemair is moving into a more 10,000 7.0% 6.4%

execution-driven phase. With the production footprint already scaled, the focus is now on upgrading 8,0006,000 5.5%

the commercial engine, evidenced by targeted restructuring (notably in Germany) and a more 4,000

systematic sales model aimed at improving pricing discipline and overall sales productivity. At the 2,0000

same time, the decentralized structure and increasingly localized manufacturing base provide a

structural advantage in a more fragmented, tariff-heavy and geopolitically uncertain environment. . Net sales, SEKm Adj. EBIT margin, %

Source: Company data, Jefferies

Coupled with a continued bolt-on M&A strategy, the model is clearly oriented toward delivering 10%

sales growth over the cycle. Chart 2 - At 14x EV/EBIT (2026-27E),

Systemair trades at a 15% discount to its five-

Valuation disconnect vs underlying fundamentals. At 14x EV/EBIT 2026/27E, the stock trades at year average

a 15% discount to its five-year average despite improving organic growth and resilient demand. 28.026.0

In our view, this reflects investor focus on near-term volatility and mix-driven noise rather than 24.022.0

fundamentals.