Category Declines and Profit Pressures Cloud Path to Recovery

研报英文原文证据摘录

Category Declines and Profit Pressures Cloud Path to Recovery

ing negative in March and remaining in decline through the quarter. LPF continues to

show relative stability with LSD% growth, while Tiki Cat remains a standout with DD% growth. NAR volumes worsened sequentially to down

Wilderness continues to be a significant drag, with mgmt acknowledging the brand's struggles and ~4% L12W

a comprehensive revamp in the works. Love Made Fresh has shown recent improvement driven by 4% GIS North America Retail - U.S. Revenue Growth Drivers

improved on-shelf availability and the launch of a resealable pouch, but remains a smaller business 2%0%

(2%)

unlikely to offset Wilderness pressure NT. (4%)

Mechanical headwinds and inflation weigh on F'27. The recently announced divestitures of the (6%)(8%)

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China Häagen-Dazs shops and Brazil business will hit the topline but are expected to be marginally w/e4 w/e4 w/e4 w/e4 w/e4 w/e4 w/e4 w/e4 w/e4 w/e4 w/e4 w/e4 w/e4 w/e4 w/e4 w/e4 w/e4 w/e4 w/e4

EQ VOLUME (Y/Y GROWTH)

PRICE PER EQ VOLUME (Y/Y GROWTH)accretive to op profit in F'27. Mgmt expects base inflation of ~3-4%, with potential incremental $ SALES (Y/Y GROWTH)

.

pressure from oil, and while HMM/transformation savings should help offset, ongoing reinvestment Source: Jefferies Research, NielsenIQ FV + C + Pet + Costco + Rem Accts

must be also be funded. Critically, at a recent industry conference mgmt flagged ~8-9pts of

mechanical profit headwinds for F'27 from lapping the 53rd week, one month of yogurt divestment, We forecast FQ4 NAR org sales down ~2%

and incentive comp normalization. 12% GIS - Nielsen vs.