Upgrade to Buy: Growth Through the Cycle, Margin Optionality Ahead

研报英文原文证据摘录

Upgrade to Buy: Growth Through the Cycle, Margin Optionality Ahead

ing client growth. We expect

YoY headwinds from softer property pricing to stabilize and abate in 2H26-2027. At ~5% organic,

the historical performance shows continued underlying margin expansion (~50bps annually), with

AJG shares are down ~30% over the pastincremental tailwinds from M&A synergies and potential AI-driven efficiencies that could add

year, largely driven by multiple compressionmeaningfully over time. Street estimates appear to underwrite little of the potential uplift from AI

amid moderating organic growth andon margins, and we estimate 2-7% EPS increase in '28 in upside scenarios.

overstated AI disruption fears; we see organic

Favorable positioning / outlook relative to group: Within brokerage, AJG is more heavily weighted stabilizing around ~5% and view AI as a long-

to faster-growing segments, including middle market though also has exposure to reinsurance and term tailwind to both revenue opportunity and

wholesale (where performance is better than some peers recently). AJG also avoids a potential drag margin expansion.

in that unlike large peers with ~35% consulting exposure, it remains focused on brokerage and risk

Exhibit 1 - AJG screens favorably on organic /

management, limiting exposure to potentially slower growth and emerging AI disruption narratives. EPS over next few years

AJG’s estimates compare favorably, with EPS up 16% (’26-28), ahead of AON (11%), MRSH (8%), Green shading denotes Buy ratings.

Organic Growth Margin Expansion EPS CAGR

Ticker Rating '22-'25 '26E-'28E '22-'25 '26E-'28E '22-'25 '26E-'28EWTW (15%), and BRO (7%). AJG Buy 8% 5% 73bps 31bps 11% 16%

AON Buy 6% 4% 47bps 69bps 8% 11%

BRO Hold 8% 3% 69bps -31bps 17% 7%