NTRA: MRD's Durable Leader; Resume Coverage at Outperform

研报英文原文证据摘录

NTRA: MRD's Durable Leader; Resume Coverage at Outperform

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Dan Leonard (Analyst)

(212) 858-7065, dan.leonard@rbccm.com

Outperform

NASDAQ: NTRA; USD 216.50 June 11, 2026

Natera, Inc. PriceScenarioTargetAnalysis*USD 275.00RESEARCH MRD's Durable Leader; Resume Coverage at Downside Current Price Upside

Outperform Scenario Price Target Scenario

155.00 216.50 275.00 325.00

Our view: We are resuming coverage of Natera (NTRA) with an Outperform 28% 27% 50%

rating and $275 price target. Our constructive view reflects Natera's growth *Implied Total Returns

opportunities in minimal residual disease (MRD) monitoring, a $15B+ total Key Statistics

addressable market (TAM) where Natera has a dominant share. We believe Shares O/S (MM): 141.5 Market Cap (MM): 30,635

Natera's market position is durable and see a continued catalyst path for Dividend: 0.00 Yield: 0.0%

Avg. Daily Volume: 1,620,072EQUITY improved reimbursement and clinical adoption of MRD testing.

RBC Estimates

Key points: FY Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E

• MRD monitoring is a durable, high-value market with Natera at the Revenue 2,306.1 2,780.6 3,490.0

helm. The MRD monitoring market represents one of the most attractive EPS, Adj Diluted (1.51) (1.68) 1.01

opportunities in oncology diagnostics, and Natera is its leader with >90% EV/Revenue 14.7x 12.2x 9.7x

market share. The TAM is not only substantial -- with estimates ranging EBITDA, Adj (268.1) (236.2) 162.8

from $15B to $30B -- but also within reach, as reimbursement and clinical Revenue Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

adoption have matured meaningfully. Natera's Signatera product (>40% 2025 501.8A 546.6A 592.2A 665.5A

of sales) now has annualized revenue of >$1B, growing at an estimated 2026 696.6A 664.5E 681.1E 738.4E

>70% Y/Y. All values in USD unless otherwise noted.