MC: 2Q26 preview - Expecting gradual improvement

研报英文原文证据摘录

MC: 2Q26 preview - Expecting gradual improvement

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with regional trends largely unchanged (strong USA and Korea on wealth Prev. 22.49 25.18 27.23 P/AEPS 22.3x 21.6x 19.3x 17.8x creation effects, flat Europe, better Japan (locals) on easier comparatives,

China stable, Middle East a -2ppt drag). We anticipate moderate sequential All values in EUR unless otherwise noted.

improvement at Dior, supported by product newness in Leather Goods. We Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

estimate 1H26E F&LG EBIT margin of 33.5% (-120bps) due to FX hedging

and operating deleverage headwinds.

Watches & Jewellery should maintain healthy top line growth (+6%

organic in 2Q26E), driven by jewellery category momentum and price

contribution. We expect Japan and APAC to be the strongest regions.

For Wines & Spirits, we forecast -1% organic in 2Q26E. Within this,

we estimate Cognac (-5% organic) pressured by elevated prior-period

sell-in and softer sell-out trends for US despite modest China recovery.

Champagne should continue its growth trend since 3Q25 at +2% organic.

We estimate 1H26E EBIT margin of 18.6% (US tariff and deleverage).

Selective Retailing is set to deliver +1% organic in 2Q26E, with +7% at

Sephora offset by a ~2ppt drag from the DFS Hong Kong/Macau disposal

(March 2026) and a ~5ppt tougher comparative.

Things to look out for - 1) F&LG 2Q exit rates and current trade commentary

and Middle East impact, 2) Nationality/cluster commentary, likely pointing

to healthy American, strong Korean (wealth effects), stabilisation in the

Chinese, 3) Dior inflection/momentum given new Jonathan Anderson

product, 4) Price/mix/volume for FY26E, 5) 2H26E margin outlook.

Valuation remains supportive - Absolute (19x P/E, 13x EV/EBIT and