Haleon plc: Brushing up

研报英文原文证据摘录

Haleon plc: Brushing up

IdeaMWe note that consensus currently implies an 81bps improvement in margin in FY26,

followed by 49bps in FY27. Given the phasing of the structure-related cost savings

(2x the weight in FY27 vs FY26), while we see FY26 margin forecasts as reasonable

(and consistent with our estimates), we think FY27 assumptions are too low. For

with c100-110bps of incremental gross structure savings, as well as the 50-80bps

from supply chain productivity, the FY27 consensus forecast implies (as shown in

Exhibit 3 ) that the group will reinvest 90-140bps back into the business. This

seems unlikely, in our view, given the aforementioned point on A&P. However, if this

were to be the case, and assuming reinvestment were to be largely into A&P, unless

that expenditure were to be done without regard for ROI (i.e spending even if it

wasn't having an impact on OSG), it would seem to suggest a higher probability of

Haleon delivering accelerated OSG, consistent with the group's mid-term goals.

Exhibit 3: FY 27 identified cost savings are materially greater than the margin

expansion assumed by consensus

Low High

FY26 margin 23.7% 23.7%

plus supply chain productivity 50 bps 80 bps

plus structure cost savings 97 bps 111 bps

Total margin uplift 147 bps 191 bps

Implied FY27e margin 25.1% 25.6%

Current consensus per VA 24.2% 24.2%

Implied assumed reinvestment (92) bps (136) bps

Note: Low/High relates to quantum of savings according to the ranges set out by Haleon management

Source: Visible Alpha, Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Arguably, this is what consensus already reflects - higher OSG but more limited

margin expansion - but we do not believe that the market currently gives Haleon the

credit for such an acceleration. Indeed, we think the de-rating of Haleon has been