Rising AI Server Tide – Significant Risks Too… Initiate Peer Perform

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Rising AI Server Tide – Significant Risks Too… Initiate Peer Perform

June 11, 2026

Portfolio Manager’s Summary

Initiating Coverage of Super Micro at Peer Perform… We’re initiating coverage of Super Micro with a Peer Perform

rating. The asymmetry in the AI infrastructure market is abundantly clear to us. Those with supply will benefit in a market

where everyone needs AI infrastructure. While we’re firm believers in the market at large – there are also significant

risks for Super Micro investors on the periphery. Growth at key customers (CoreWeave and xAI) is likely to further the

customer concentration risk – the nature of unpredictable AI Data Center projects limits the level of visibility inherent in

the business. Further, margins may be a pressure point. Customer concentration is likely to continue to influence gross

margin mix. In the past, the company has demonstrated a willingness to win market share at the expense of profitability.

In our view, the two areas Super Micro points to as margin levers – DCBBS and Enterprise mix – are unlikely to be as

accretive to the financial model as investors may expect. On the other hand, HPE’s exit from lower-margin Neocloud

deals coupled with Dell’s persistence in achieving 5-6% operating margins in AI may put a floor in the market. Also,

Super Micro generally seems more focused on optimizing margins – something they haven’t been as focused on in the

past.

Elsewhere, governance, regulatory risks, and a mixed history of expectations-setting (and subsequently hitting targets)

are also concerns. Of course, the DOJ recently indicted one of the company’s co-founders with allegations concerning

illegal AI server shipments into China. While the company has not been named as a defendant in the DOJ indictment,