ALNY IONS BBIO: CARDIO-TTRansform stock scenarios (June edition...Psst, might change next month)

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ALNY IONS BBIO: CARDIO-TTRansform stock scenarios (June edition...Psst, might change next month)

Biotechnology - Immunology

Genetic Medicines - Market Weight

ALNY IONS BBIO: CARDIO-TTRansform stock scenarios June 11, 2026

(June edition...Psst, might change next month)

The Wolfe Byte

With the AstraZeneca CARDIO-TTRansform result in H2, we believe "overall success, combo fail" is most likely.

While we argue for 'long ALNY, long IONS, neutral-short BBIO', prevailing buyside feedback suggests 'long ALNY,

tbd IONS, short-then-long BBIO'

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As a reminder, we published our view on CARDIO-TTRansform (AstraZeneca+Ionis partnership) and estimated 60.5%

20.3% 19.2% odds across the three major scenarios (combo fail, combo success, all fail; respectively). A small amount of

feedback on the odds, leading us to believe buyside is at <50%, >50%, 5-10% odds across these scenarios. Significant

debate and no consensus on how the stocks would trade, especially on ALNY. Less so on IONS. More buyside consensus

on BBIO. Exhibit 1 summarizes the stock debate around how stocks would trade on 'overall success, combo failure'.

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Wolfe sees ALNY upside on 'overall success, combo failure', but buyside is split on directionality (anecdotally

based on our experience speaking to investors; ~50% up / ~50% down). We argue that nucresiran POS should be

detached from Wainua performance in CARDIO-TTRansform, because the TRITON study is event-based (and thus curve

separation is not Alnylam's enemy; enrollment speed is). Combo success would represent the most immediate threat to

Alnylam's near-term fundamental.