Starlink Broadband Disruption Sensitivity Analysis; LEO Headline Risk Remains

研报英文原文证据摘录

Starlink Broadband Disruption Sensitivity Analysis; LEO Headline Risk Remains

TD SECURITIES INC. - CANADA SECTOR NOTE

June 11, 2026

■Communications Starlink Broadband Disruption Sensitivity

Analysis; LEO Headline Risk Remains

Vince Valentini, CFA^ THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

416 944 7012

We see the entrance of Starlink and other LEO broadband providers as a headline risk to

vince.valentini@tdsecurities.com

Canadian Telecom stocks in the near-term, especially those with U.S. exposure (BCE and

Natale Puccia, CFA^ CCA). With Canada having both high quality terrestrial networks, and a high percentage of

416 983 6399 converged providers, we do not see the risk of material market share shifting to LEOs.

natale.puccia@tdsecurities.com

Carter Sullivan, CPA^ However, something in the range of 5% to 10% total market share for direct to consumer LEO

416 983 3954 offerings is a potential risk in the medium term (perhaps gradually over the next 3-5 years if

carter.sullivan@tdsecurities.com Starlink residential pricing falls). Consequently, in this report, we wanted to show investors

the math on downside risk to forecasts and target equity values if LEO competitors were

to take this much share. Given that the non-rural market in Canada is already saturated by

existing broadband providers, we would conclude that even 5% share loss to LEO would be

a bit painful because almost every single customer won (not including rural/remote where

Starlink has already penetrated) would likely have to be churn off of an incumbent network.

Our Take on Suburban Broadband Market Exposure: Perhaps marketing efforts to win non-

rural internet customers will be more active in the U.S. versus Canada for the next 1-2 years,

but increased LEO disruption in the U.S. could negatively affect sentiment toward Canadian