Initiate BUY: Execution Story – EBITDA Recovery & Deleveraging; M&A Adds Upside

研报英文原文证据摘录

Initiate BUY: Execution Story – EBITDA Recovery & Deleveraging; M&A Adds Upside

Paper & Forest Products

ADENTRA Inc

Global Research INITIATING COVERAGE

June 11, 2026

Price: C$33.80 (06/10/2026) Initiate BUY: Execution Story – EBITDA Recovery & Deleveraging;

Price Target: C$42.00 M&A Adds Upside

BUY (1)

ESG SCORE: 63/100

Kasia Trzaski Kopytek, CFA, CPA, CA^ THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

416 983 4058 We are initiating coverage of ADEN with a BUY and C$42.00 target price implying a 26% total return. We believe ADEN is attractively valued

kasia.trzaski@tdsecurities.com given expectations of organic EBITDA growth and deleveraging – in a subdued housing market backdrop – with expected annual FCF yields of

Sean Steuart, CFA^ 9%. Potential M&A accretion and multiple expansion from housing-related catalysts represent upsides to our target.

416 308 3399

sean.steuart@tdsecurities.com ■For our thesis to play out, ADEN primarily needs to deliver consistent execution: steady earnings growth and FCF-driven deleveraging.

Our forecasted 10% y/y EBITDA growth in 2027 contemplates low-single-digit organic sales growth against a measured U.S. housing market

recovery. ADEN's annual FCF yield over the past 10 years was 11%. At the current share price, we forecast FCF yields of 9% in both 2026E

and 2027E. ADENTRA's FCF/share CAGR was 17% from 2015-2025.

■Multiple expansion optionality with accelerating housing recovery (not our base case). Our C$42.00 target price is based on a 6.5x

target EV/EBITDA multiple applied to our 2027E EBITDA estimate of $196 million, with the resulting EV adjusted for FCF. This target multiple

is modestly below both the current 6.8x on our 2026E estimates and ADEN’s 10-year average forward multiple of 7.2x. While we are not