2Q26 Pipeline Inflects, Capacity Plan Upsized; Data Center Order Incoming?

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2Q26 Pipeline Inflects, Capacity Plan Upsized; Data Center Order Incoming?

FuelCell Energy, Inc. (FCEL)

Equity Research

June 9, 2026

Capacity ramp to 500MW will be incremental, not binary, with funding well-supported. High-volume

tape casters sized for 500MW are already being installed alongside additional conditioning capacity,

with each phase unlocking volume in stages rather than a single step-change. Mgmt notes volume will

drive meaningful operating leverage out of the factory, and the benefit extends well beyond the product

line itself: every product sale carries an attached long-term service agreement, so the installed-base

service tail compounds as deployed capacity grows. That higher-margin recurring stream is a key reason

the 500MW target makes sense; capacity needs to be online to handle eventual fleet replacements as well

as new product demand.

On funding the $200-275mn, we expect the spend to be spread quarterly over 24 months rather than

lump-sum, with only $20-30mn falling in FY26. Combined with declining operating cash burn and ~

$426mn in unrestricted cash (including the post-2Q ~$53mn raise from the further share sale), Mgmt

notes sufficient liquidity to fund the expansion.

We estimate capacity ramping to 500MW by 2Q28 based on prorated capex deployment of $250mn

over the next 24 months. We estimate opex to remain steady in the $19-21mn range/qtr and cash burn

inflecting higher from $33mn in 2Q26 range/qtr to $45-$50mn/qtr in FY27 before trending back lower

in FY28 as the incremental 400MW capacity comes online. While it seems tight, we see FCEL having

enough liquidity to fund the expansion.

The new 12.5MW standardized block is the clearest near-term commercial unlock for data center

conversion.