Gruma US: Awaiting an Inflection Point

研报英文原文证据摘录

Gruma US: Awaiting an Inflection Point

tegory trends. As competitive dynamics ease and foodservice MinorbuybackEPSassumptions& DPS difference from model is related to

recovers, Gruma is well positioned to deliver volume recovery and margin expansion, further

supported by structural drivers including wellness trends, international growth, operating leverage.

Gruma Q sales | vol growth & EBITDA margin

International Growth and Margin Upside. Europe continues to perform well, supported by mix

improvement and growing penetration of higher-margin retail channels. Central America stands out

as a key growth engine, with demand exceeding capacity (ongoing expansion), while Asia/Oceania

offers a longer-term opportunity as it shifts from foodservice toward higher-margin retail.

Buybacks Accelerate. Gruma has materially increased capital returns, with buybacks reaching

>1.5% of market cap YTD (>US$100m), following US$280m in 2025, roughly double the prior year,

supported by strong free cash flow generation and low leverage (1.3x vs 1.5x target). Gruma has

.

stepped up repurchases at a time when the stock trades at historically low multiples, effectively Source: Jefferies

providing downside support and helping bridge the gap until volumes recover and margin expansion

Gruma Bimbo NTM PER (x)resumes, which we expect in 4Q.

Attractive valuation following a weak earnings momentum cycle with a strong competitive

environment in 2025, largely driven by Ole (2nd largest US tortilla producer), and a weak food service

market (20% US sales). We expect the US market to gradually start recovering in 2Q26. Gruma

trades at 9.3x 2027E PER and 12.2% EqFCF yield, significantly below its historical av. (13.3x PER)

and peers (Bimbo at 15.7x).