ZG: Enhanced market model update & some realism on the multiple

研报英文原文证据摘录

ZG: Enhanced market model update & some realism on the multiple

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Brad Erickson (Analyst)

(971) 842-9607, brad.erickson@rbccm.com

Khadijah Gibson, CFA (AVP)

(347) 610-7116, khadijah.gibson@rbccm.com

Audrey Stuart (Associate)

(212) 437-9151, audrey.stuart@rbccm.com

June 9, 2026

Zillow Group, Inc. Outperform

NASDAQ: ZG; USD 35.83RESEARCH Enhanced market model update & some realism on Price Target USD 70.00 ↓ 95.00

the multiple Scenario Analysis*

Our view: We update our proprietary enhanced market model (EM) for an

estimated snapshot at ZG's progress (please ask your RBC representative DownsideScenario CurrentPrice TargetPrice ScenarioUpside

for a copy of the model). The EM strategy continuing to drive visible

& durable faster-than-market growth is a critical piece for the bull 20.0044% 35.83 70.0095% 90.00151%

case. Takeaways from the work include: a) '26 Street implies likely EM

*Implied Total ReturnsEQUITY organic acceleration while '27 Street may embed modest deceleration, b) Key Statistics

consistent market share gain assumptions could imply modest acceleration Shares O/S (MM): 235.7 Market Cap (MM): 8,444

for core PA in '27, c) estimate % of actively EM share-gaining markets Dividend: 0.00 Yield: 0.0%

could nearly triple by '28. With that said, we are taking the opportunity to Enterprise Val. (MM): 0 Avg. Daily Volume: 1,188,441

lower our price target to reflect a more pragmatic multiple in light of AI's

overhang. Actual business risk from this remains low, in our view (see page RBC Estimates

2); however, investors' views of risk from AI's effect for vertical-specific FY Dec 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E

digital marketplaces should be reflected (see our recent piece coming out Revenue 2,236.0 2,583.0 2,969.7 3,349.5

of Google I/O laying this out).