NUVB: GSK Acquisition of Competitor Implies Ibtrozi Being Undervalued, But Also See Added Commercial Risk

研报英文原文证据摘录

NUVB: GSK Acquisition of Competitor Implies Ibtrozi Being Undervalued, But Also See Added Commercial Risk

EQUITY RESEARCH QUICK TAKE

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Leonid Timashev, Ph.D. (Analyst)

June 9, 2026

Nuvation Bio Inc.

GSK Acquisition of Competitor Implies Ibtrozi Being Undervalued, But Also See Added

Commercial Risk

NYSE: NUVB | USD 4.80 | Outperform | Speculative Risk | Price Target USD 20.00

Sentiment: Neutral

This morning GSK announced a proposed acquisition of NUVL for a $10.6B upfront, and we see potential readthroughs for NUVB.

Recall, NUVL is a direct competitor to NUVB in ROS1 NSCLC non-small cell lung cancer space, and has been a major overhang on

NUVB shares given perceptions it has a meaningfully better safety/efficacy profile.

Among positive readthroughs, the NUVL acquisition suggests that pharma continues to see some value in the ROS1 space despite

concerns around a small market. Given Ibtrozi estimates ($800M in our model, $1.4B cons.) are not dissimilar from zidesamtinib

($1.1-$1.5B cons.), and the fact that GSK had mentioned that their interest in the ROS1 asset was a contributing component to

the deal, we think this should help boost confidence that Ibtrozi revenues can reaccelerate. GSK mentioned that 25-33% of the

deal was ROS1 driven (up to $3.5B) - which given NUVB's $1.5B mkt cap, implies upside on Ibtrozi alone. We also note that GSK's

mgmt. highlighted that it would consider acquiring a ROS1 inhibitor as a separate deal, again suggesting a high interest in the

space - and if other pharmas think similarly, could open the door for future interest in NUVB. Lastly, on the commercial side, given

that ROS1 testing is still not fully prevalent, a large player in the market may help discover additional patients and raise the overall

opportunity.