MAA - Slightly Lowering Estimates, But Raising PT to $146 from $136 and Maintaining Buy Rating

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MAA - Slightly Lowering Estimates, But Raising PT to $146 from $136 and Maintaining Buy Rating

Truist Securities

Equity Research Report June 9, 2026

REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.

TRUSTS: Apartment REITs (MAA)

Michael Lewis, CFA MAA - Slightly Lowering Estimates, But Raising PT to $146 from 212-319-5659

Michael.R.Lewis@truist.com $136 and Maintaining Buy Rating

What’s Incremental to Our View: We are lowering our 2026 normalized FFO estimate by

Stock Rating BUY -0.8% and our 2027 estimate by -0.9%, primarily due to higher interest rates. MAA has low

Unchanged financial leverage at 4.5x net debt/EBITDA, but it has $300 million of bonds maturing at

1.2% this year and $600 million at 3.7% next year. Meanwhile, we think our same-store

Price Target $146.00 revenue growth projections could prove a bit conservative if U.S. job growth builds on a little

↑ momentum gained the last couple of months. We are raising our 12-month price target to

from $146 from $136 based on the calculation in Figure 2.

$136.00

Adjusting FFO Estimates: We are raising our 2026 FFO estimate to $8.58 per share

from $8.52ps, driven by net gain on investments. Our estimate is within management’s

TR to Target 10.9% $8.45-$8.77ps guidance range. Excluding net gain on investments, net casualty-related

Price (Jun. 8, 2026) $137.15 charges, and loss on embedded derivative in preferred shares, our 2026 normalized FFO

52-Wk Range $153.20-$120.57 estimate goes to $8.50ps from $8.57ps, which is also within management’s similarly

Market Cap ($M) $16,360 adjusted $8.37-$8.69ps guidance range and is a penny per share below the $8.51ps

ADTV 659,092 consensus.

Shares Out (M) 119 We project a -0.2% year-over-year same-store revenue decline in 2026 and 2.0% expense