Resuming Coverage Following Equity Deal for US$1B Nat Gas Power Acquisitions

研报英文原文证据摘录

Resuming Coverage Following Equity Deal for US$1B Nat Gas Power Acquisitions

gic. While deal valuation of 12.5x EV/EBITDA is well above ~3.5-4x paid EBITDA (mm) $1,104 $966↑ $1,168↑ $1,314↑

in TA's last few txns, it reflects 100% contracted cash flows for decades to come; for Consensus Estimates

comparison, uncontracted gas power has recently traded hands at sub-7x but cash 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

flows are unpredictable while mid-life gas power (contract <10 years) can go sub-10x

CFPS $1.99 $2.40 $2.89

but bear recontracting risk. Second, the acquisition strengthens TA's business risk

profile, with contracted MW increasing to 52% vs. 50% (TA targets 70%+) and weighted Valuation

average contract to 11 years vs. 10. Lastly, it establishes a new footprint in Colorado 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

where planned coal retirements (22% of grid) and rising power demand could create EV/EBITDA 9.2x 11.7x 9.5x 8.4x

follow-on opportunities; this State will represent ~10% of TA's pro forma EBITDA, with DCF Yield 9.9% 7.9% 11.1% 13.2%

Alberta still the lion's share at ~36% vs. ~39%.

QTR. CFPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Equity raised to finance the transaction. The company issued $350M common shares 2024A $0.78 $0.76 $0.68 $0.47

(~6% increase), which will fully fund the deal's equity portion. This supports a path to

2025A $0.60 $0.85 $0.53 $0.54improving credit metrics in the near term.

2026E $0.46a $0.63 $0.41 $0.58Raising estimates. We updated our model to reflect the equity issued and acquisition

(US$80M EBITDA/US$33M FCF w/ further upside possible through availability incentive

payments). Our adj. EBITDA now $966M (vs. $936M) in 2026, $1,168M (vs. $1,058M) in

2027, and $1,314M (vs. $1,204M) in 2028.

Key Changes

Estimates 2026E 2027E

CFPS $2.08 $2.59

Previous $2.09 $2.58 Our Thesis

DCF/Sh $1.38 $1.93