FMC: Takeaways from FMC Fireside Chat—Strategic Review, $2B from New Molecules by 2035, Iran War Weighs on Farmer Economics

研报英文原文证据摘录

FMC: Takeaways from FMC Fireside Chat—Strategic Review, $2B from New Molecules by 2035, Iran War Weighs on Farmer Economics

Chemicals Equity Research

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

FMC Corporation (FMC)

Investment Thesis

Our EW rating on FMC is based on increased earnings uncertainty in 2026. Additionally, negative free cash flow in 2025 with a highly

levered balance sheet also weighs on the outlook for FMC's debt rating and financial flexibility going forward. Longer term, we still see FMC

as a global leader in the crop protection industry with a growing biologicals business and industry-leading R&D capabilities to develop new

active ingredients and drive sustainable earnings growth.

Target Price Valuation for FMC

Our 12-month price target is $17, based on a 2026E EV/EBITDA of ~8x (10.3x 2026E P/E) which is below the low end of the company's

7-year historical EV/EBITDA multiple of ~10.0-15.0x. We believe a multiple at the low end of its historical range is warranted given its

financial results over the last 2 years have acted more commoditized given consistent earnings misses.

Risks to Our Price Target and Rating for FMC

Upside Risks: Higher crop prices on weather/drought concerns, less competitive pressures from generics supply, better-than-expected

Brazil outlook, higher-than-expected demand growth for diamides, new products, biologicals. Downside risks: Industry destocking

continues, FMC channel destocking extends longer than expected, patent expiry results in generics taking more share, rising raw material

costs, potential for slowdown / downturn in Global GDP, irrational competitive behavior, among others.

Companies Mentioned in Report

Company Name Ticker Last Price

(06/09/26)

FMC Corporation FMC $11.50