First Read: AIA Group "Regulatory clarity pending, but a worst case..."

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First Read: AIA Group "Regulatory clarity pending, but a worst case..."

side could be underappreciated. With an UBS Cons.

12/26E 0.76 0.74

intensive promotional campaign since mid-May, AIA HK’s Q2 VNB is likely to exceed

12/27E 0.85 0.81

market expectation, in our view.

12/28E 0.93 0.91

Fundamental strengths stand firm, with proven record of resilience Charles Zhou

Despite the regulatory uncertainty around HK MCV business, (1) fundamental strengths Analyst

charles.zhou@ubs.comin the rest of business appear intact, and (2) AIA has proven track record in navigating

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ups and downs (e.g. oil crisis, Covid). In China, we see a compelling narrative, with 18%

VNB CAGR in 2025-30E. AIA's premier agency force supports its premium branding, Jessica Chan

enabling stronger penetration into middle-class and affluent segments - which are less Analyst

jessica.chan@ubs.comaccessible to most peers. The insurer is also able to grow through geographical

+852-3712 2507

expansion. For new regions entered from 2019, AIA targets 40% VNB CAGR in 2025-

30E. For existing regions, we estimate mid-teens VNB growth, as AIA's penetration rate Dennis Bai

of target customers remains low at single-digit level. In Southeast Asia, TLAA's latest Analyst

dennis.bai@ubs.com

data suggests AIA's resilience to oil crisis - Thailand's ANP rose 14% YoY in Apr-2026, a

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turnaround from 2% YoY decline in Q1. In Singapore, we expect VNB growth to

accelerate against an easier base in Q2. In Malaysia, we anticipate a continued recovery

of agency channel.

~1x P/EV marks a compelling entry point, in our view

We believe that current valuation provides an attractive risk/reward. AIA is trading at

1.04x P/EV with 16% operating RoEV (12-month forward). This implies <1x new