Aryzta AG "View on trends & investor sentiment" (Buy) Iffert

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Aryzta AG "View on trends & investor sentiment" (Buy) Iffert

BS, diluted) (EUR)

some visibility given 6-12 month contracts with retailers (c40-50% of group sales).

UBS Cons.

According to market data for Germany, pricing for the entire industry has been resilient 12/26E 4.44 4.58

for some time, which might reflect limited room for smaller bakeries to lower price 12/27E 4.72 5.12

points due to their often thin margins. Though pricing visibility long term is limited in the 12/28E 5.01 5.51

bakery industry, these trends are encouraging for now and should limit some investors'

concerns of materially increasing pricing pressure post ASP increases in bakery of c25- Joern Iffert, CFA

30% over the last 3-4 years. Analyst

joern.iffert@ubs.com

+41-44-239 88 00

Investor sentiment- the key issue is the muted organic sales growth

Marti Queral Ferre, CFAAryzta's organic sales in 2024 were -0.2% y/y (volumes +0.2%), and +1.5% y/y

Analyst

(volumes +0.5%) in 2025. For 2026, Aryzta is guiding again for low- to mid-single-digit marti.queral-ferre@ubs.com

organic sales growth (UBSe +1.9% y/y- supported by new lines and RoW) and we think +41-44-236 9246

the lower end is more likely. But this is below the average organic sales growth of Swiss

small and midcaps of c3-4% y/y. The lack of stronger growth is a concern for investors

and is impacting Aryzta's valuation multiple. Aryzta is focusing on more premium/

differentiated products but this is in line with its peers.

Valuation: DCF-based PT of CHF81; view on next catalyst

We think Aryzta organic sales in FY 26E are likely to be flattish to mildly growing y/y,

with room for some margin expansion supported by cost efficiencies (link) and resilient

pricing. Though we are still finalising H1 26E estimates, directionally we would expect