Ambev "Meeting with Brazil Beer Association: Reasons to Be Cautious on 2026"

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Ambev "Meeting with Brazil Beer Association: Reasons to Be Cautious on 2026"

inking less alcohol. 12/27E 1.13 1.08

2026 Beer Industry Outlook: The association expects 2026 volumes to 12/28E 1.18 1.16

broadly track GDP growth (which seemed surprisingly low to us given the easy Rodrigo Alcantara

comps vs 2025), describing the outlook as highly volatile. Weather, the world Analyst

cup, and easier comps should provide meaningful tailwinds, while macro rodrigo.alcantara@ubs.com

headwinds—persistent indebtedness, elevated rates, and ongoing sports +55-11-2767 6324

betting activity—are likely to cap upside. On the channel side, Mr. Petroni Kevin Zavala

highlighted that on-premise accounts built inventory ahead of the world cup in Associate Analyst

late 1Q/early 2Q26, leaving bars and restaurants fully stocked—a timing kevin.zavala@ubs.com

distortion that should normalize once the tournament begins, but which +55-11-2767 6176

remains a key downside risk if world cup demand disappoints. Regionally, the Sanjeet Aujla

CEO expressed greater optimism toward the Northeast (El Niño), while Analyst

flagging the South as a concern given the slow recovery from recent natural sanjeet.aujla@ubs.com

disasters. +44-20-7567 4529

Sports Betting, an Emerging Headwind for Beer: Mr. Petroni flagged online

sports betting as a meaningful and growing drag on beer consumption,

particularly for the value segment, where the ~R$5/day consumer beer

budget competes directly with betting expenditure. CEO noted that while the

segment was regulated for the first time in 2025, activity continues to expand

Highlights (R$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 79,737 89,453 88,243 92,181 96,273 101,166 105,547 110,232

EBIT (UBS) 18,831 21,801 23,317 24,871 26,275 27,633 28,913 30,281