UBS Napa Recap "SpotOn & Qu, Modern Restaurant POS Panel Recap" Chiodo

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UBS Napa Recap "SpotOn & Qu, Modern Restaurant POS Panel Recap" Chiodo

FigureSource:Company2: Toastdata,continuingUBS estimates.toNote:takeMarketmarketshare shareestimatesinabovecorearemid-marketon US SMB GPV.andHistoricallySMB scaledbusinessincumbents includes Micros and NCR.

Additional Research:

Toast (TOST): SaaS ARR per location analysis; back-book & growth markets

related thoughts: We continue to believe that total ARR growth is the most important

metric for Toast investors, particularly when viewed in conjunction with strong payback

periods (in the mid-teens months range, albeit with headwinds from elevated hardware

cost potentially mildly extending payback periods). We expect SaaS ARR continues to

compound in the ~low 20s% benefitting from a combination of ~high-teens location

growth and ~MSD SaaS ARR per location increases (UBSe). From a SaaS ARR per location

perspective, Toast's front book (new customers) tend to come in at a lower level, with

Enterprise locations in particular the most dilutive (albeit with still attractive paybacks

and an LTV/CAC that is better than SMB restaurants given the reduced churn / longer life

of the relationship). The SaaS ARR per location pressure presented by new customer

additions places added emphasis on existing customer improvements, mainly from

incremental SaaS module attach (e.g., Toast IQ Grow as a more recent addition, which

we believe provides a degree of support to a slightly more extended period of ~MSD

SaaS ARR per location growth), but also benefiting from a degree of pricing. With these

mix shifts in context, we update our SaaS ARR analysis including front-book SaaS ARR

per location considerations by gross add location type (e.g., Enterprise, international,

retail F&B, and US core restaurant). Full report here.