Blue Owl Capital Inc "Bull-Bear Debate: OWL in a Holding Pattern" (Neutral)

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Blue Owl Capital Inc "Bull-Bear Debate: OWL in a Holding Pattern" (Neutral)

quality/underwriting holds up through a real credit cycle, 3) and sentiment toward alts Q1 0.19 0.19 0 0.19

improves. But this largely depends on macro, credit outcomes, and a turn in risk Q2E 0.22 0.22 -1 0.22

appetite. Taken together, this would be supportive of modest EPS upside and result in Q3E 0.23 0.23 -1 0.23

greater confidence that OWL's FRE growth can return to low to mid teens growth Q4E 0.25 0.24 -1 0.25

consistently, justifying a return to a mid-teens multiple (~50% potential price return). 12/26E 0.89 0.89 -1 0.88

12/27E 0.98 0.96 -2 1.00

Bear Case Centers on Risk to Fundamentals, Not Just Multiple-Driven 12/28E 1.09 1.05 -3 1.13

The bear case hinges on fundamentals deteriorating, not further multiple compression Michael Brown

alone: 1) retail BDC redemptions persist (% requests don't inflect better in the 2H); 2) Analyst

reputational contagion to other retail/institutional fundraises; 3) credit stress materially mike.brown@ubs.com

rises. All-in, FRE growth could persist at mid-to-high-single digits growth for a longer +1-212-713 1387

time period and dividend payout ratio could remain tight to ~100%. That keeps the Vijeth Mudalegundi

multiple anchored and implies ~25% downside. The core risk: we are early, not late, in a Analyst

credit and flows reset. vijeth.mudalegundi@ubs.com

+1-212-649 8172

Revising EPS Lower; Bull/Bear EPS Scenarios and BDC Credit Analysis Inside Mary Mahrer

Our estimates for FRE/sh growth '26E-'27E range in the high-single digits (7%-9%), and Analyst

our updated '26E/'27E DE of $0.89/$0.96 is 1%/5% below Street (we revised our 26/27 mary.mahrer@ubs.com

+1-212-713 9014

EPS 1%/2% lower, respectively). Our $9.50 PT reflects a blended analysis of P/E and SoTP