Legrand: Caught in shifting current as value flows upstream

研报英文原文证据摘录

Legrand: Caught in shifting current as value flows upstream

Executive summary

Double downgrade to Underperform: AI power shift leaves Legrand behind

We double downgrade Legrand to Underperform from Buy. We think the shift to 800V

DC architectures represents a fundamental structural change in value creation, moving

away from component-based distribution toward integrated power and cooling system

design. We see value shifting upstream to power conversion, medium-voltage

infrastructure and cooling, where system-level optimisation (power + thermal co-design)

becomes critical. This increasingly favours integrated players such as Schneider and

Vertiv. Legrand, by contrast, remains predominantly a downstream component supplier

(PDUs, busways, cabling), with limited exposure to MV and only nascent capabilities in

liquid cooling, leaving it structurally disadvantaged as architectures evolve. Growth over

the past four years has been driven by strong white-space exposure (~75% of datacentre

sales), but we believe this tailwind is now set to reverse.

Legrand’s $/MW and Capex share set to decline to $2.6m/MW and 17% under

sidecar power rack and $2.4m/MW and 14% under full 800V DC

As datacentre topologies evolve, we expect a two-speed market to emerge, with

multiple architectures coexisting. Traditional AC-based systems will likely remain

prevalent across colocators and enterprise customers, while faster-growing hyperscalers

and neocloud players transition earlier toward higher-density and DC-based

architectures. As this shift materialises, we estimate that Legrand’s revenue intensity

declines to c.$2.4m/MW from c.$2.9m/MW at peak (c.$2.6m/MW under sidecar

configurations). At the same time, its share of total datacentre capex (ex-IT, $/MW) falls