Super Retail Group: Remain cautious following Strategy Day

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Super Retail Group: Remain cautious following Strategy Day

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Super Retail Group

Remain cautious following Strategy Day

Reiterate Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 10.60 AUD | Price: 12.35 AUD

Growing share in competitive markets is challenging 11 June 2026

Our forecast Group EBIT is 5%, 5%, and 6% below consensus (VA) over FY26-28. Our key

concerns moving forward are the prevailing soft trading environment, rising costs of Equity

operations, and the intense competition within SUL’s businesses. Today, SUL unveiled

its strategy for growth over the next 5 years which involves growing its share within its Key Changes

core markets as well as selective expansion of its TAM. We have a cautious view towards

(A$) Previous Current

this strategy given many of the categories are heavily contested and many large retailers

2026E Rev (m) 4,184.9 4,174.5

are also pursuing similar strategies in the current challenging retail environment.

2027E Rev (m) 4,348.4 4,358.8

Our FY26/27/28 earnings have been cut largely due to factoring in Project Ignite costs 2028E Rev (m) 4,493.6 4,507.4

(which will support the new strategy) and we have adjusted our outlook for new stores 2027E EPS 0.96 0.93

(see below and Exhibit 1 for more details). We also increase capex forecasts to factor in 2028E EPS 1.08 1.03

investments made under the new strategy. Downside to our $10.60 PO is offset by cost

savings under Project Ignite in future years. David Errington >>

Research Analyst

Rebel faces several headwinds to trading Merrill+61 3 9659Lynch2527(Australia)

Rebel’s future earnings growth is centred on expanding into new regions, growing its david.errington@bofa.com

private and licensed brand portfolio, and owning the sport category. In our view, Rebel is Mitchell Hawker >>