MENA Real Estate: Mobility shock, not a demand reset – rebound not priced in

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MENA Real Estate: Mobility shock, not a demand reset – rebound not priced in

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MENA Real Estate

Mobility shock, not a demand reset –

rebound not priced in

Industry Overview

Foundations shaken, structure intact 11 June 2026

Expat-led demographics remain the anchor of UAE real estate, so recent outflows have Equity

sent share prices down c.35% from February peak. But, in our view, this is a mobility MENA

shock, not a structural population reset. We reinstate coverage on the UAE real estate Real Estate

sector with a constructive stance: Buy on diversified (REIT + developer) Emaar Equity Research

Properties (see report, AED15 PO, 44% shareholder return potential) and Aldar Marc Mozzi >>

Properties (see report, AED10 PO, 39% shareholder return potential), and Neutral on ResearchBofASE (France)Analyst

pure-play developer Emaar Development (see report, AED15 PO, 17% shareholder return +33 1 8770 0374

marc.mozzi@bofa.com

potential). The sharp near-term earnings reset is priced in, but the medium-term

Thomas Hynes >>

rebound, 70% over 2029-31E, is not. Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

+44 20 7995 9037Sharp earnings reset: >50% below Street thomas.hynes2@bofa.com

The stalling in construction is already visible, as highlighted by Damac Properties, May Markus Kulessa >>

2026 (see report). This reflects normalising demand alongside rising completions, delays Research Analyst

in new supply and moderation in new launches. Completions are being deferred, while BofASE+33 1 8770(France)0382

we see transaction volumes correcting by 30-40% over the next 18 months as mobility markus.kulessa@bofa.com

flows through with a lag. House prices have rolled over (-2% Dubai/-1% Abu Dhabi from Credit Research

peak), and we expect a mid-double-digit negative price cycle ahead.