Emaar Development: Built to perform but capped by risks

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Emaar Development: Built to perform but capped by risks

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Emaar Development

Built to perform but capped by risks

Reinstating Coverage: NEUTRAL | PO: 15.00 AED | Price: 13.56 AED

Mobility shock, not a demand reset 11 June 2026

We reinstate coverage of Emaar Development (ED) at Neutral with an AED15.0 price Equity

objective, implying 17% total shareholder return. ED sits at the centre of the Dubai

residential market, which we believe is being more impacted by short-term population Marc Mozzi >> Research Analyst

swings than structural demand. As a pure-play exposure to Dubai residential development, BofASE (France)

ED is highly geared to shifts in population flows and mobility trends. While we do not see a +33marc.mozzi@bofa.com1 8770 0374

structural reset in Dubai’s long-term growth, the near-term mismatch between population Markus Kulessa >>

dynamics and supply is set to weigh on sales and pricing (see MENA Real Estate report). Research Analyst

BofASE (France)

Against this, ED’s earnings profile remains highly levered to the pace of population +33 1 8770 0382

recovery. markus.kulessa@bofa.com

Thomas Hynes >>

Today’s weaker sales trickle down over 2027-28E EPS ResearchMLI (UK) Analyst

The slowdown in housing demand, already visible (Damac Properties, 05/2026), coincides +44 20 7995 9037

thomas.hynes2@bofa.com

with project completions, moderation in new launches and an elevated near-term supply.

We expect ED’s development sales to fall 41% in 2026 before rebounding 7% in 2027. We

see a negative pricing backdrop (low double-digit decline from peak), driving EBITDA

margin compression, troughing at 25%. These weaker sales should feed through to EPS in Stock Data