SNDX/KURA - AML Market Model Update With New Post-Transplant Maintenance Duration Learnings

研报英文原文证据摘录

SNDX/KURA - AML Market Model Update With New Post-Transplant Maintenance Duration Learnings

Biotechnology June 11, 2026

Brad Canino

brad.canino@guggenheimpartners.com SNDX/KURA - AML Market Model Update With New

212 823 6558 Post-Transplant Maintenance Duration Learnings Josh Boen

Joshua.Boen@guggenheimpartners.com

212 518 5345 Key Message: We have updated our AML market model based on new learnings

about the duration of revumenib post-transplant maintenance coming in around

10m from recent medical meeting presentations. We have also incorporated recent

commercial commentary from SNDX and KURA, which includes patient new starts,

total prescriptions, and breakdown by the NPM1m and KMT2Ar subtypes. Net-net, we

were a bit too high on revumenib patient additions and maintenance duration, and our

estimates are reduced by 4-11% from 2026-2030E, and our PT is decreased from $34

to $31. However, we still model revumenib reaching ~$500mm sales in R/R AML, which

combined with the Niktimvo profit share makes the stock attractive at the current ~

$1.25bn EV, in our view. This doesn't even account for potential sales from the ongoing

1L AML trials, which we model peak unadjusted at >$1bn in 1L AML. For KURA, we made

modest changes to our ziftomenib forecast of -5% to +8% from 2026-2030E. We continue

to model peak R/R AML sales of ~$100mm, which keeps us Neutral rated with no PT.

Slides inside with market model details and information on menin inhibitor class

commercial dynamics.

New data for SNDX's revumenib at ASCO/EHA show the potential for at least ~10m

post-transplant maintenance treatment durations, which we have used to update

our AML market model. The MD Anderson group presented a pooled analysis of 24 R/