Latam Macro Notes: Peru – BCRP: wait and see mode

研报英文原文证据摘录

Latam Macro Notes: Peru – BCRP: wait and see mode

Deutsche Bank

Research

Emerging Markets Date

Latam Macro Notes 12 June 2026

Peru – BCRP: wait and see mode

Beatriz Garcia Nunes

Key points: LatAm Economist

• The BCRP left the policy rate unchanged at 4.25%, as expected. +1-212-250-9584

• The statement kept virtually the same language, noting that the surge in Francisco Campos

inflation has been largely attributed to transient factors. Chief LatAm Economist

+1-212-250-9764

• Nevertheless, the BCRP retained a more active forward guidance, hinting

at its readiness to act if conditions warrant it.

• We maintain the expectation of steady rates for an extended period, with

risks tilted to the upside. Stubborn core inflation above the target range,

further upticks of 12m inflation expectations, higher global rates, or a

negative market reaction to the election result could lead BCRP to

tighten monetary conditions.

• The presidential run-off election is exceptionally close, with Fujimori

currently holding a marginal lead. Recounting requests and potential

social unrest should sustain elevated levels of uncertainty for weeks, as

the contested ballots could determine the final election outcome.

The Peruvian Central Bank (BCRP) decided last evening to leave the policy rate

on hold at 4.25%, in line with our consensus-matching expectation. The

communiqué kept virtually the same language as the previous one, preserving the

portrayal of the domestic macro backdrop as positive, but now highlighting the

improvement of forward-looking indicators. While the BCRP observed a decrease

in May's headline inflation, driven by lower prices across certain food categories,

it noted that core inflation (defined as excluding fuel and food prices, yet