European Economics Weekly: Why Irish Data Matters For The ECB View

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European Economics Weekly: Why Irish Data Matters For The ECB View

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June 12, 2026 03:22 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.MEuropean Economics Weekly | Europe Jens Eisenschmidt

Chief Europe Economist

Why Irish Data Matters For The Jens.Eisenschmidt@morganstanley.comJean-Francois Ouvrard +49 69-21662817

Deputy Chief European Economist

Jean-Francois.Ouvrard@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662813

ECB View Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc

Bruna Skarica

This week, Jean-Francois Ouvrard discusses ECB communication Chief UK Economist

Bruna.Skarica@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-9110

around EA and Ireland growth data. Next week, the focus will be Chiara Zangarelli

on the Fed, BoE, Riksbank, and Norges Bank meetings, as well as Economist

Chiara.Zangarelli@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3644

UK inflation and labor market data.

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.

Gabriela SilovaThis week in Europe: ECB communication and volatile Ireland GDP figures

Economist

Gabriela.Silova@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662832

All eyes this week were on the ECB meeting. As expected, the ECB increased

interest rates by 25bp and kept its communication unchanged. The meeting Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc

Skander Garchi Casal

reinforced our conviction that the ECB will pause in July, as only limited new

information will be available by then. If oil prices stay elevated, we think the next Skander.Garchi.Casal@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0034

hike will likely come in September (see our review here). The meeting also delivered Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.

updated projections. The ECB revised 2026-27 inflation higher, a touch more than Claire A Thuerwaechter

we thought it would. GDP growth was taken a touch lower at 0.8%Y in 2026 (from Economist

Claire.Thuerwaechter@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662842