CPB: Need Revenue Visibility...and the Right FY27 Starting Point

研报英文原文证据摘录

CPB: Need Revenue Visibility...and the Right FY27 Starting Point

Equity Research

Earnings Revised — June 8, 2026

Food

The Campbell's Company

Need Revenue Visibility...and the Right FY27 Starting Point Underweight

Price Target: $18.00

Notable Changes

Our Call $ (Jul) Current Prior % Chg

CPB faces two key realities: 1) sales are pressured and it's unclear when this eases; 2) EPS 2026 2.15 2.13 0.7%

inflation will weigh heavily on FY27 and we now have more conviction on our well-below- EPS 2027 1.81 1.75 3.3%

Street EPS. Visibility and reset needed before discussing key positives. Rev. (MM) 2026 9.76B 9.71B 0.5%

Rev. (MM) 2027 9.64B 9.53B 1.2%

Absolutes...relatives. While FQ3 tracked expectations, it was nevertheless challenged,

with uncertainty on top-line path lingering into FY27, amid an inflation backdrop which is Ticker CPB

unrelenting. Along with a needed incentive comp reset, EPS needs to come down despite Upside/(Downside) to Target (16.2)%

what appears good work on savings. So, before any embrace on the stock can happen, two

Price (06/08/2026) $21.49key items are needed: 1) absolute - visibility on sales, 2) relative - closure of EPS gaps with

our FY27e EPS $1.81 well below go-in Street $2.07. 52 Week Range $19.56 - 34.56

Market Cap (MM) $6,426

Organic sales. While FQ3 org sales -4% was in-line w/ WF/Street -4.2/-3.5%, the reality is Enterprise Value (MM) $13,502

this remains under notable pressure. Into FQ4, CPB sees org sales about flat to slightly up Average Daily Value (MM) $193

with: 1) Snacks about in-line/slightly worse vs. FQ3 -4%, 2) M&B consumption ~+1% with Dividend Yield 6.9%

a $30mn, or ~240bps lift, to org sales on YA ERP-related timing, implying about ~+3.5%.

We'd note recent consumption has been Snacks -5.5% and M&B -2.0%, per Nielsen.