Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 102" Patricot

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Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 102" Patricot

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Global Oil and Gas Equities

GlobalHormuz tracker: day 102

Oil Companies, Major

Henri Patricot, CFA

President Trump threatens new strikes against Iran Analyst

US President Donald Trump threatened new strikes on Iran today and said that the henri.patricot@ubs.com

country had taken too long to negotiate a deal (link). The US military had said earlier that +33-14-888 3033

it struck Iranian air defences, ground control stations and surveillance radar sites in what Nayoung Kim

it described as a "proportional response" after Iran shot down over Hormuz a Analyst

US helicopter, whose two crewmembers were rescued. A tanker was also struck by a nayoung.kim@ubs.com

missile in the Gulf of Oman today, in what was reported as possible US strike to enforce +44-20-7568 4010

the blockade (link). Joshua Stone

Analyst

No material improvement in oil & gas flows joshua.stone@ubs.com

+44-20-7901 5588

Reports of significant increase in traffic via Hormuz are not corroborated by the latest

UBS Evidence Lab data (> Access Dataset) which shows only four oil & gas vessels Josh Silverstein

crossing the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, two in each direction. The June average is still Analyst

in line with April-May at ~3 and still significantly lower than February's daily average of josh.silverstein@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3513

nearly 50 crossings. On a volume basis, exports were up to 1.6Mboe/d yesterday but are

still only at 1.2Mboe/d so far in June, close to the 1.3Mboe/d average in May (Figure 4EstimatedoilandgasflowsexitingtheGulf,basedonDWT,inMboe/d). Tom Allen

Flows through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait bounced back slightly above average yesterday Analyst