The Wolfe Power Trip

研报英文原文证据摘录

The Wolfe Power Trip

June 8, 2026

COMPANY TICKER RATING PT (PRIOR) % UPSIDE

Source: Wolfe Research

OP=Outperform, PP=Peer Perform, UP=Underperform, NR=Not Rated

Priced as of 06/05/26

Investment Conclusion

We are Overweight on the IPP sector. We are Outperform-rated on all 4 of the IPPs. Our high-level thesis here is that

power markets are tightening as baseload supply had been consistently shrinking, per our own proprietary analysis.

Now demand growth tied to AI (data centers), EVs, and manufacturing reshoring is set to accelerate. TLN's data center

deal with Amazon was a gamechanger for the sector in that it signals a blue chip hyperscaler's recognition of the

value of 24x7 carbon-free energy, putting an even greater value on nuclear assets, which was then enhanced even

further with the shift to FTM and upsizing. We also had CEG's nuclear restart deal with Microsoft at TMI and FTM deal

with META at Clinton. This all continues to validate the thesis. We are Outperform on VST, given its long baseload

power position with increasing nuclear exposure into tightening power markets, driving strong FCF generation, plus

the attractive Comanche Peak and PJM/META nuclear data center deals. We are Outperform on NRG, as it is well-

positioned as the additionality play of the IPPs with 6+ GWs of planned new build gas generation for data center

deals with hyperscalers. We are Outperform-rated on CEG with the view that it is a unique decarbonization play (by

far biggest nuclear operator) with an investment grade balance sheet, and now the enhanced diversification in owning

one of the best gas fleets via the highly accretive Calpine acquisition. We are Outperform on TLN, as it is a unique

data center play with significant leverage to contracted power deals and the PJM market.