Morning Market Tidbits: May jobs: strong but Messi

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Morning Market Tidbits: May jobs: strong but Messi

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Morning Market Tidbits

May jobs: strong but Messi

Key takeaways 10 June 2026

Economics• May payroll strength was boosted by World Cup & seasonal noise. Despite that,

United States

underlying hiring looks solid.

• Even adjusting for temporary boosts, payroll growth remained comfortably above Shruti Mishra

US Economist

breakeven, likely closer to 60-90k. BofAS

smishra44@bofa.com

• Today's events: CPI and federal budget balance for May

US Economics

BofAS

See Team Page for List of Analysts

Exhibit 1: Job growth is averaging comfortably above the breakeven, consistent with a labor

market that has bottomed out

Nonfarm payroll growth (SA, m/m change, 3-and 6-month average)

3-month average 6-month average

50 Breakeven job

growth: 20k

-50

Jan-25 May-25 Sep-25 Jan-26 May-26

Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, BofA Global Research

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

World Cup/seasonal effects likely boosted May hiring…

The upside surprise in May jobs was partly driven by temporary factors, suggesting

some payback ahead. Gains were heavily concentrated in the leisure & hospitality and

non-education local government sectors, consistent with either early World Cup-related

hiring or seasonal quirks tied to Memorial Day timing this year. Construction hiring was

also firm, likely reflecting a mix of World Cup prep, warm weather and data center

activity. Altogether, these sectors likely added roughly 60-100k more jobs than trend.

…but underlying job growth still looks solid

Still, the broader signal from the report was constructive. The 93k upward revisions to

March and April payrolls, concentrated largely in leisure & hospitality, suggest labor

demand was already firm even outside of May’s temporary boost. Nonfarm payroll