Viscofan (AO) | Buy | Growth drivers intact, but Asia competition and inflation weigh

研报英文原文证据摘录

Viscofan (AO) | Buy | Growth drivers intact, but Asia competition and inflation weigh

Viscofan Buy | Target Price: EUR74.00

Company description Management

Viscofan is the world leader in the manufacturing of artificial casings for the Jose Domingo Ampuero, Chairman

processed meat industry, with a market share of around 40%. The company Jose Antonio Canales, CEO

manufactures all major types of artificial casings (cellulose, collagen, fibrous,

Key shareholders

plastic, and plant-based veggie), which are used by its customers to produce Free float 76.00%

sausages and other processed meat products. Viscofan operates a vertically CF Alba 14.00%

integrated production model with facilities across Europe, America, and Asia. Echevarria family 10.00%

Investment case Valuation methodology

VIS strategy revolves around strengthening its leading position DCF-based model (WACC 7.7% and g 1.5%), which yields a TP of

in casings while seeking new growth opportunities. It aims to EUR74.0.

accelerate sales and EBITDA growth to 8-9% CAGR in 2025-30E, We use detailed forecasts through 2030E, then assume c. 2%

backed by mid- to high-single-digit growth in casings and annual growth until 2034E, and normalise the terminal value

double-digit growth in new businesses. with an EBITDA margin of c. 26%, assuming capex at around 5%

We see a favourable context, given: 1) potential market share of sales to support a 1.5% terminal growth rate.

gains on Viskase's capacity closures, 2) the inflationary Risks to our rating

environment favouring a higher conversion to artificial casings Meat taxes or higher regulation aimed at reducing the emission

in search of higher production yields, and 3) trading down to of greenhouse gases or the intake of processed food.

processed meat, which is cheaper.