Oil Weekly #88: What happens after the war? OPEC, and the risk of oversupply

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Oil Weekly #88: What happens after the war? OPEC, and the risk of oversupply

June 7, 2026

Investment Conclusion

Energy outperformed the broader market this week, rising ~3% vs a ~2.5% decline in the S&P 500, while Brent

finished \flat w/w as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East (see our daily Iran tracker for

additional updates). Within our coverage universe, refiners were the relative outperformers, gaining ~5%, while gas

E&Ps lagged, declining ~1.2% as Henry Hub natural gas prices eased ~2% over the week.

We continue to monitor developments in Iran closely. The combination of uncertainties keeps us unwilling to make

knee-jerk changes in sector positioning. For now, we continue to view the biggest beneficiaries of transitory windfalls

across oil, gas and refining as deleveraging events.

Near-term risk / reward on spot oil remains tilted lower on expectations of an eventual resolution. The

timeline remains clearly subjective; but where we have conviction is a return of the perma-backwardation, favoring

deleveraging as the primary theme we believe can differentiate relative stock performance. However, we see the

emetghing risk of potential oversupply when this is resolved before considering whether the long end of the oil curve

moves up on a restocking cycle. This is how we frame the dilemma facing investors: the risk of a correction in spot

prices in response to any resolution that restarts flows through the Strait of Hormuz vs a longer duration disruption

that ultimately lifts the long end of the curve.

Navigating these outcomes is a trade off between the valuation impact from the risk of correction. In all cases we

see screens for absolute value led by APA, BP, DVN, OVV, OXY and TTE. All have one thing in common – potential