FX Blog: A week of votes

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FX Blog: A week of votes

Deutsche Bank

Research

Foreign Exchange Date

FX Blog 11 June 2026

A week of votes

Shreyas Gopal

The coming week sees several votes across Europe, on both monetary policy and Strategist

political fronts. In this note, we outline how each will affect our existing European +44-20-754-51501

FX trade recommendations: long EUR/CHF, long GBP/NZD, and short EUR/NOK.

Perhaps the most interesting vote from a longer-term perspective is taking place

in Switzerland this Sunday, where voters across the 26 cantons will be voting on

a proposal to cap the population at 10 million (currently c. 9.1 million). To pass,

the referendum requires both an absolute majority of votes nationally and

amongst the cantons. Recent reporting suggests the result will be close. There

would be no immediate policy action even if the vote passes, and as such we

would be surprised by any large reactions in the franc around the results.

Nevertheless, from a medium-to-longer term perspective the result will be

fascinating. The vote passing would inject uncertainty over the Swiss-EU

relationship, as Swiss acceptance of the principle of freedom of movement

underpins its bespoke arrangement of selective participation in the EU single

market. Domestic businesses have recently described the positive effect of skilled

migration into Switzerland on innovation and prosperity. This is illustrated by

positive trends in both Swiss real GDP per capita and total factor productivity

(Figure 1), to the extent that our colleagues have in the past described the country

as a “supply-side monster.” In the longer-term this weekend could end up being

the first chink in this armour.

On the SNB meeting next Thursday, we expect a hold on rates (as priced). With