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Refining & Chemicals - Asia Pacific: Look beyond near-term uncertainties on refineries; prefer KKPC among petchem
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Refining & Chemicals - Asia Pacific: Look beyond near-term uncertainties on refineries; prefer KKPC among petchem
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Refining & Chemicals - Asia Pacific
Look beyond near-term uncertainties on
refineries; prefer KKPC among petchem
Estimate Change
Refineries: look beyond near-term uncertainties 09 June 2026
The share price of refining companies declined by 9% on average after their 1Q earnings Equity
releases, which we partly attribute to uncertainties in the near-term earnings outlook Asia Pacific
from 1) impacts of the domestic fuel price cap; and 2) potential inventory losses Refining & Chemicals
following crude oil price volatility (brent crude price -14% from end-1Q26). While we see Sun Jung Lee >>
that the price cap in domestic market prompts operating losses, limiting a full capture of Research Analyst
higher GRMs (domestic sales % of refining division in 1Q: S-Oil 50%, SK Energy 44%, GS Merrill+82 2 3707Lynch0538(Seoul)
Caltex 26%) in 2Q, the government’s loss-compensation is likely to be recognized in 2H. sunjung.lee@bofa.com
The price control policy is expected to be lifted once crude benchmarks stabilize. Taekyoung Ha >>
Research Analyst
Merrill Lynch (Seoul)
taekyoung.ha@bofa.comExpect mid/long-term tight supply of refined products
Despite the uncertainties, we expect the Asia GRM to support 2Q/2H earnings. QTD Asia
GRM has reached US$39/bbl, up 84% QoQ, with GRM as of 5 June remaining at
AbbreviationsUS$25/bbl. It is noteworthy that GRM had already reached US$11/bbl in 4Q25 before
NT = near-termMiddle East conflicts, backed by tight supply for refined products (pre-war forecasts:
L-T = long-termincremental capacity growth of 0.63mn/0.84mn bpd in ‘26/27 vs. incremental demand of
ME = Middle East1mn/1mn bpd).
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