Liquid Insight: ECB – one and not done, but what goes up likely comes down sooner than priced

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Liquid Insight: ECB – one and not done, but what goes up likely comes down sooner than priced

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Liquid Insight

ECB – one and not done, but what goes up

likely comes down sooner than priced

Key takeaways 09 June 2026

Rates and Currencies Research• The ECB is likely to deliver the well flagged 25bp hike this week. Communication

Global changes are likely to be small...

• ... maintaining a hiking bias, with forecasts leaving door open to a bit more than one

hike. We like money market flatteners GlobalMLI (UK)Rates & Currencies Research

• and favor expressing long duration view further out in 10y vs USTs. For FX, EURUSD Ruben Segura-Cayuela

likely to be more driven by US data. Europe Economist BofA Europe (Madrid)

+34 91 514 3053

ruben.segura-cayuela@bofa.com

By Ruben Segura-Cayuela, Evelyn Herrmann, Sphia Salim, Sphia Salim

Michalis Rousakis and Kamal Sharma RatesMLI (UK)Strategist

Chart of the day: It is in EA that the market is pricing the largest number of hikes by May-27, +44sphia.salim@bofa.com20 7996 2227

including a 100% probability of a 25bp hike this week. Hawkish ECB bias explains this. Michalis Rousakis

Market implied bp hikes from CB-dated OIS contracts (in Jun-26 and beyond that up to May-27) FX Strategist

MLI (UK)

90 +44 20 7995 0336

80 Implied for Jun-26 Implied thereafter, up to May-27 michalis.rousakis@bofa.com

70 KamalFX StrategistSharma

60 MLI (UK)

+44 20 7996 4855

50 ksharma32@bofa.com

40 Oliver Levingston

30 FX and Rates Strategist

20 Merrill+852 3508Lynch4631(Hong Kong)

10 oliver.levingston@bofa.com

0 See Team Page for List of Analysts

AUD USD CAD JPY GBP EUR

Source: Bloomberg, BofA global Research. Data as of 9-Jun close,

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Liquid Insight

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