FedEx: Expecting: A strong Q4 beat....+ a near-doubling of FEC EPS (inc. buybacks) by '29

研报英文原文证据摘录

FedEx: Expecting: A strong Q4 beat....+ a near-doubling of FEC EPS (inc. buybacks) by '29

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Buy FedEx 11 June 2026

North America Reuters Bloomberg Rating Buy

United States FDX.N FDX US Price target (USD) 479.00 Price at 10 Jun 26 319.25

52-week range 411.78 – 217.10

Industrials

Airfreight & Surface Valuation & Risks

Transportation

Expecting: A strong Q4 beat....+ a near-

doubling of FEC EPS (inc. buybacks) by '29 RichaResearchHarnain,AnalystCFA

+1-212-250-6285

Our conviction in recommending FDX remains high, even as we anticipate a

Megan Makini complicated earnings release in roughly two weeks (Tuesday, June 23rd). This Research Associate

complexity stems from fiscal year calendarization and the expected upcoming +1-212-2501458

restatements associated with the company’s recent Freight spin-out. While we

understand the market's recent trepidation around FDX shares—discussed

further in this report—we see no compelling reasons to avoid a stock with what

we think is still significant potential to impress.

In the pages below, we encourage investors to refocus their attention to:

1) Another likely impressive set of earnings results.

Our Q4 EPS outlook for Express + Freight is $6.41. While that is already a healthy

8% above consensus, we think it could still prove conservative for a variety of

reasons e.g.,

• An Express incremental margin assumption that is only in line with the

prior quarter, despite a likely lesser MD-11 headwind and our view of

accelerated pricing due in part to mix + fuel surcharge; and

• A FDXF revenue assumption that screens low relative to what’s been

reported by peers in their mid-Q updates (see Figure 2). Given brighter

revenue prospects, we also consider a healthy potential beat on margins