NALCO (NACL IN) Buy: Rising Bauxite pushes up Alumina; large domestic Aluminium premium increase in 1Q

研报英文原文证据摘录

NALCO (NACL IN) Buy: Rising Bauxite pushes up Alumina; large domestic Aluminium premium increase in 1Q

9 June 2026

NALCO (NACL IN) EquitiesMetals & Mining

Buy: Rising Bauxite pushes up Alumina; large

domestic Aluminium premium increase in 1Q India

◆ Guinea’s bauxite export curbs have driven bauxite and alumina MAINTAIN BUY

prices higher. This is positive for NALCO

◆ We estimate NALCO’s domestic aluminium prices are +17% as TARGET PRICE (INR) PREVIOUS TARGET (INR)

domestic premiums have been reset higher 480.00 480.00

◆ Remain Buy, TP INR480: NALCO remains a clean aluminium SHARE PRICE (INR) UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE

and alumina proxy with attractive 5.1x EV/EBITDA valuation 378.20 +26.9%

(as of 08 Jun 2026)

Guinea bauxite export curbs have started to push bauxite and alumina prices

MARKET DATA

higher: In April 2026, Guinea announced plans to curb bauxite exports from June Market cap (INRm) 694,614 Free float 45%

2026 given weak bauxite prices. Guinea’s bauxite exports in 2025 stood at c183MT, Market cap (USDm) 7,257 BBG NACL IN

3m ADTV (USDm) 62 RIC NALU.BO

of which c.149MT were exported to China (total bauxite imports by China in 2025

were 201MT). CFR bauxite prices have increased by ~16% in the past 2 weeks, and FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (INR)

this has pushed up alumina prices, which are +9% from lows, though at USD334/t, Year to 03/2026a 03/2027e 03/2028e 03/2029e HSBC EPS 31.54 40.44 42.53 39.33

they remain well below historical averages. Production and export issues in Guinea HSBC EPS (prev) 31.54 40.44 42.53 39.33

Change (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

led to a sharp surge in Guinea bauxite prices in 2024 (prices went from USD70/t to Consensus EPS 28.08 33.71 36.90 39.33

USD120/t), which pushed up alumina prices (from USD330/t to USD650/t). In our PE (x) 12.0 9.4 8.9 9.6